Nuggets Mailbag: Could Denver trade for a backup big to Nikola Jokic this season?

What’s behind the defensive regression early in the season? Can Christian Braun win Most Improved Player?

I don’t know about “horrific.” Points in a vacuum don’t always tell the whole story. But you’re not wrong. The early returns indicate a regression toward 2022-23 numbers.

The Nuggets have the 18th-ranked defense through 10 games. That’s 10 spots lower than last season and three spots lower than two years ago. The good news: They were good enough offensively to win the championship anyway that season, and their current offensive rating is within 0.1 points of the 2022-23 team despite roster changes and injuries.

Back to defense, though. Michael Malone can almost stomach a loss despite good defense more than he can a win featuring bad defense. (Key word is “almost.”) The first topic he brought up to reporters after the win over Miami was the lack of discipline Denver exhibited at that end.

There’s some important context. The Nuggets are allowing the second-most field goal attempts per game (93.5) and the seventh-most 3-point attempts (39.5), an obvious formula for giving up more points — but that’s partially a result of the increased tempo they’re intentionally playing at this season. They currently rank seventh in PACE (101.24), up from 26th. This is what happens when you add Christian Braun to the starting lineup and Russell Westbrook to the rotation.

Playing fast on offense can speed up the opponent, too. The Nuggets are up from 17th to fourth in fast break points, but they’re also allowing 3.5 more per game than last season. There’s a give and take. Malone believes some of the “give” is avoidable. He’s been unhappy with communication getting back in transition — multiple players beelining for the paint and leaving shooters uncovered.

There are issues popping up in the half-court, too. Braun’s upgrade to the starting lineup resulted in a defensive downgrade to the bench, an issue exacerbated this week by Aaron Gordon’s injury and Peyton Watson’s subsequent increase in starting minutes. Denver is allowing the fifth-most points in the paint per 100 possessions (53).

Braun has been outstanding so far as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s replacement, especially with more physical assignments. But from what I can tell on film, he hasn’t mastered screen navigation to the extent of KCP yet. If he’s chasing a ballhandler from behind after struggling to get over a screen, that can set off a chain reaction of help and recovery. Certain quick guards (Kyrie Irving) can take advantage without needing to pass; others can locate the roll man or the open spot-up shooter, forcing rotations and tiring out Denver’s defenders with ball movement. The Nuggets are allowing the most assists per game and per 100 possessions in the league.

They also have a lot of jumpy guys who are susceptible to biting on shot-fakes. Players who attack those close-outs can collapse the defense easily and set off the same reaction. The result? The seventh-most wide-open 3s (20.6) allowed per game.

Michael Malone is playing the starters — especially Nikola Jokic — a ton early in the season. Why doesn’t Malone just play the stiffs Calvin Booth has given him to prove a point? That they’re stiffs (Dario Saric, Zeke Nnaji)? It seems ill-advised to play Jokic and Jamal Murray so much this early in the season. They play more than LeBron, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, etc. It doesn’t make any sense other than Malone is acting like Art Howe, the manager in “Moneyball” (played by the great Philip Seymour Hoffman). Your thoughts?

— CS, Denver

First of all, Durant was actually playing more minutes than Jokic or any of Denver’s players before injuring his left calf last weekend. The reason for that is similar to the reason Jokic is averaging 38.1 minutes. In the Suns’ first 10 games, six of their eight wins were decided by a margin of six or fewer points. Four of those wins were one-score games. They conclusively would not be 8-2 without a heavy dosage of Durant. Sound familiar?

Malone deserves some slack here. Phoenix’s situation is pretty clear evidence to me that all coaches are creatures of instinct. Their responsibility is to win games, and if games are close, they’re going to rely on their best player more. Especially when you consider the landscape of the NBA. If coaches don’t win games, their job security is questioned immediately. The Nuggets started the season 0-2 and faced a lot of pressure to get back on track. They accomplished that. They’re 7-3. Malone’s delegation of minutes was the cost. I’m guessing most Denver fans prefer this to being 4-6 with Jokic and MPJ playing less.

Now, your point still has credence. Malone has pointed out himself that Jokic’s playing time isn’t sustainable. The Nuggets need at least one of Nnaji or Saric to be good. I’d argue Nnaji more so, from a salary standpoint. He’s a player whose confidence tends to gain traction with reps. He hasn’t played double-digit minutes in more than six consecutive games since the first six of last season. That means Malone might need to find situations to let him play through mistakes, for Jokic’s sake.

I just think those situations haven’t presented themselves yet, with the exception of one game.

Love the reference, by the way. Philip Seymour Hoffman is one of the best to ever do it. Since you asked (you didn’t), I think “Magnolia” is his best performance.

So what’s Denver’s solution to give Nikola Jokic time to rest on the bench? Dario Saric hasn’t looked very good. Zeke Nnaji is mid. DeAndre Jordan’s just a locker-room leader now. Is there anyone out there on the market? Can we call up PJ Hall for a few games to kick his tires?

— Mike, Denver

I’ll treat this as a trade-related question because, as I just told CS, the ideal solution would be for one of Saric or Nnaji to grow into the season and play better.

The Nuggets will likely be hard-pressed to acquire a rotation-worthy big man before the trade deadline — Robert Williams III, Jonas Valanciunas and Nikola Vucevic come to mind — unless they’re willing to part with young talent, which could compromise an already tenuous floor-spacing situation.

They’ve managed to overcome that so far by shooting the second-highest 3-point percentage in the league. But you have to consider that Braun, Jokic and Gordon’s numbers will drop eventually. They can’t stay above 50% forever.

With that in mind, my sense is that if Denver decides to be active in the trade market this season, the priority will be adding a shooter. The front office views Gordon as an above-average backup center for playoff purposes, I’ve been told. That’s when the rotation shortens anyway. These concerns about the center position during Jokic’s rest minutes are more confined to the regular season.

Like I said, patience is probably the best medicine with Nnaji and Saric, but if it gets really bad, maybe Hall is worth a try. After all, Denver’s two-way center last season, Jay Huff, is thriving in Memphis on a regular contract now.

Worst-case scenario: Nuggets flame out in the first round of 2025 playoffs and decide they need to make one major change. Who would they move: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter Jr.? And what would be the issues involved, i.e., first/second-apron restrictions, no real market for one or another player, etc.?

— Douglas Murray, Grand Junction

Already feeling fatalist about the season after 10 mostly successful games, are we, Douglas?

Remind me of this question in April if the Nuggets are holding their breath to avoid the play-in. In the meantime, I’ll say this: If they flame out in the first round, Murray will probably have something to do with that, simply because this is a championship-caliber team when he’s producing. And if Murray had something to do with a second consecutive postseason regression, I imagine it would be awfully difficult to find a team willing to trade for his max contract. Just look at how quickly the market dried up for Brandon Ingram due to extension implications.

Porter is probably the answer. Denver has already floated him in trade talks that didn’t go anywhere last summer. If he gets through another healthy season and continues to look as polished as he has offensively, I think the narrative around his contract will flip. Teams are always interested in size plus shooting.

Thanks to Gordon’s 2025-26 salary concession in recent negotiations, the Nuggets are positioned to avoid the second apron again next year, allowing more wiggle room in trades. They should still be able to aggregate salaries, for instance. But that wouldn’t likely be relevant in the situation you’re outlining anyway, because they would probably be trying to break up a big contract into multiple smaller ones, rather than vice versa.

Can we talk about Christian Braun? The kid’s improved by leaps and bounds in the offseason. What changed from last year to this year? And what are his chances of being the NBA’s most improved player?

— Matt C., Boulder

His shot has received worthy attention, but I think the most important difference offensively is Braun’s control and finishing ability at the rim. The game has seemingly slowed down for him when he’s slashing, cutting, absorbing contact. Players who recognize rotations and cut are often rewarded by Jokic, but they’re still responsible for converting the opportunities. Braun has done that. His paint productivity should be sustainable, even if his 3-point percentage averages out.

He might have a hard time winning Most Improved Player this season if Victor Wembanyama levels up to All-NBA status. Even after Wembanyama’s inefficient start, I see a world where he ends up running away with the award. But Braun probably belongs on a list of five early contenders based on how Denver’s starting lineup has not lost a step with him in it.