Nuggets should be grinning from ear to ear after watching recent Thunder games

There’s reason for hope in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets | Jamie Schwaberow/GettyImages

The Western Conference standings have painted a picture that few teams have reason to smile about. The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies have enjoyed a rise up the ranks, and the Denver Nuggets remain on track for home-court advantage, but it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder that are setting the pace.

Despite the Thunder’s legitimate dominance over the rest of the NBA, their most recent outings should have the Nuggets thrilled by what the future could hold.

The Thunder have been dominant in 2024-25, posting a 32-6 record and the best point differential in the NBA. As such, no one should be looking forward to playing a team that has an MVP candidate and is just a hair shy of the best winning percentage in the Association.

If there’s any team that can feel positively about its chances, however, it’s the Nuggets—for the most obvious of reasons.

Oklahoma City may be racking up wins, but it’s also revealing a potential weakness for teams to exploit. It must be acknowledged up front that Chet Holmgren hasn’t played since Nov. 10, but the possibility of a flaw revealing itself must be evaluated.

As recent games have shown, if any team is going to take the Thunder down, it’s likely to be one that can bully them down low—and the Nuggets are the perfect candidates to do so.

Nuggets benefit from Thunder showing signs of interior flaws

Oklahoma City has lost just three games since the beginning of December, with one not even counting toward its record: The NBA Cup Championship. Each of those losses revealed a flaw, however, that favors the Nuggets.

That includes the Thunder’s most recent loss, a 129-122 instant classic against the 33-5 Cleveland Cavaliers—the only team in the NBA with a better record than OKC.

Cleveland defeated Oklahoma City by dominating down low, with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley combining for 46 points, 21 rebounds, 13 assists, four steals, two blocks, and nine offensive boards. It was an eye-opening encounter that managed to shine a light on a potential Thunder weakness.

Holmgren returning from injury should help, but for as great as the Thunder’s perimeter defense is, it’s been routinely hurt by bigs who thrive down low.

Thus far in 2024-25, only the 6-31 Washington Wizards are allowing more second-chance points than the Thunder. Oklahoma City is No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, but Denver isn’t the traditional opponent that’s going to attempt to generate consistent dribble penetration.

The Nuggets are going to feed the ball to three-time MVP and 2023 Finals MVP Nikola Jokic in the post—and there’s every reason to believe he can be successful against the Thunder.

Nuggets are quietly a nightmare matchup for the Thunder

The obvious caveats here are that the Nuggets will need to find an answer for Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and the Thunder’s surplus of high-level perimeter defenders. If Jokic plays like he’s proven he can in the playoffs, however, Denver will have more than just a fighting chance.

Based on matchups, the Nuggets might actually prove to be the Thunder’s kryptonite—if Jamal Murray remembers what he’s capable of in the playoffs.

If Murray plays at the level that helped the Nuggets reach the 2020 Western Conference Finals and win the title in 2023, Denver could send Oklahoma City packing. It’ll need Aaron Gordon to find a way to limit Holmgren, and Christian Braun to unearth an answer for Williams, but the most important element of this discussion is already in play.

Jokic has an advantage against just about anyone he goes up against, but if the Thunder’s recent woes are a sign of things to come, he’ll have a chance to give the Nuggets a shot at an upset.

It’s worth noting, of course, that the Nuggets and Thunder are currently 1-1 in head-to-head matchups in 2024-25. Oklahoma City defeated Denver in the season opener, but Colorado’s pride exacted a measure of revenge in the rematch—without Gordon or Murray.

More will be learned when the two sides meet on Mar. 9 and 10 in Oklahoma City, but until then, the Nuggets appear to be the Thunder’s biggest threat.