Chiefs-49ers prediction: Is San Francisco good enough to buck two KC trends?

The Kansas City Chiefs play the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday in Santa Clara, California. Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California

TV: FOX (Channel 4 in Kansas City, Channel 24 in Wichita) Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: 49ers by 1 1/2.

CHIEFS-49ERS GAME PREDICTION

Perhaps it’s good to appreciate this at the start for what it is: The game of the NFL regular season.

The Chiefs and 49ers are facing each other in a Super Bowl rematch. They also remain the two betting favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl, so it’ll be hard to hype up any contest more than this one in the season’s final two months. Even with a 3-3 start, San Francisco remains among the NFL elites. The 49ers’ losses have been close (and a little fluky) while their wins have been dominant, and a quick statistical glance shows a team that doesn’t display many weaknesses.

On offense, San Francisco has been dealing with some injuries (running back Christian McCaffrey is one), and pass protection has sometimes been shaky. Then again, quarterback Brock Purdy continues to excel by nearly every metric (including Pro Football Focus’ pass grade, where he ranks first) and the team combines some of the NFL’s best receiving talent with an offensive line that has been carving out holes in the run game about as well as anyone.

Defensively, it’s a similar struggle to pick nits. The 49ers have two of the game’s best defenders, in linebacker Fred Warner and edge rusher Nick Bosa, and each is playing up to his reputation this year.

San Francisco’s a little thin at linebacker behind Warner — there have been some holes over the middle in the pass game and the run defense hasn’t always been great — and by his standards, former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward is having a down season.

The Chiefs, no doubt, are the better squad on special teams, as well. That’s still not much to work with, especially if you’re an opposing team searching for a road victory. The good news for the Chiefs is this: Look for it, and you’ll find a trend that favors them in this specific scenario.

For example: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread as a betting underdog. This is the type of situation where he’s thrived, and a little added motivation never seems to hurt things.

Or this: Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 21-4 overall after a bye week. At this point in his coaching career, we’re past a “small sample size” dismissal of that stat. It is more likely than not that Reid uses the extra time he gets to his full advantage. One area to watch will be how the Chiefs try to use the 49ers’ defensive aggressiveness against them. Two years ago, KC ran it right at Bosa to expose his worst tendencies, with receiver Mecole Hardman having a massive day as a result.

Mahomes also has spoken in two consecutive matchups against the 49ers about their inclination to bring their safeties downhill to take away intermediate passes. Because of that, Mahomes has seen it as essential to take (and hit on) deep shots, and it stands to reason that receiver Xavier Worthy will play a critical role in keeping San Francisco honest in this matchup.

These are two great teams with two of the best coaching staffs in the league. And while the 49ers lost the Super Bowl (when Mahomes was nearly flawless at the end), there were still multiple plays and opportunities for San Francisco to take that contest. It didn’t happen, of course, and the Chiefs earned their championship rings by making the clutch plays when needed.

San Francisco found ways to frustrate KC’s offense for much of the Super Bowl, though. And while the Chiefs are coming off their best offensive effort of the season, there was enough shakiness on the offensive line — and with Mahomes’ un-comfortably in the pocket — to make one think that this performance might not be as good as the last.

The betting trends are on KC’s side, but I think San Francisco is good enough to buck that, especially in a one-game setting in front of its home crowd. Give me the 49ers for both the win and cover, as I see a well-balanced team playing well while also avenging last year’s bitter end.

49ers 26, Chiefs 20

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: San Francisco

Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Saints 14 (Actual: Chiefs 26-13) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 4-0-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 29-16-1 (64%)