BREAKING NEWS: DONALD TRUMP WINS PENNSYLVANIA, REACHES 270 ELECTORAL VOTES to win the presidency!

2024 US Election: As the polling closed in several states of America on November 5, former President Donald Trump is ahead with 211 electoral college votes while Kamala Harris trails with 145, according to US media, in the neck-and-neck race to the White House.

A candidate has to win at least 270 electoral college votes to become a US President, regardless of the popular vote he or she bags. The electoral college votes are distributed among 50 states depending on the population.

For the last six presidential elections, 36 of the 50 states have voted for the same party. Thus the result for these states is more or less on expected lines. As reported by US media outlets, Harris started with 226 electoral votes and Trump with 219 based on the trends in past races.

Fight Comes Down to Swing States

Under these cicumstances, the fight comes down to swing or battleground states where the voters have changed their preferences in the past swinging the election outcomes. This election, there are seven swing states. These include Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania known as the Blue Wall states and Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia called the Sun Belt states.

Taken together, the electoral college strength of these swing states is 93. For Harris, 93 electoral votes from swing states added to 226 takes the total tally beyond 270 majority mark. For Trump, 93 added to 219 will also mean easy win in the Presidential Elections.

This explains the signficance of swing states. Clearly, the outcome in these states will largely decide who will be the 47th President of United States, since the rest of the states behave according to a pattern, unless there is a set back.

As the trends streamed in, Trump was leading in 19 states including Texas, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky while Democrat Kamala Harris was ahead in New York, Vermont, New Jersey and six other states.

The results in the key battleground states have not been called yet.

The Road to 270

The Blue Wall states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – also known as Rust Belt states – have traditionally the strongholds of the Democratic Party. The Sub Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina have an electoral college strength of 49.

Harris is ahead with 68.4 per cent of the votes counted in Pennsylvania, while Trump is cruising ahead in Georgia, as per early trends by US media outlets.

Pennsylvania, the largest swing state with 19 electoral college votes holds the key for both the presidential hopefuls. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016. Biden won it in 2020.

For both candidates, winning Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, would make things easier.

The Crucial Pennsylvania

Winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would give Harris 44 votes, and help her reach the magic figure of 270. These Blue Wall states are known to be reliable Democrat supporters. They have voted for a Democratic candidate in every presidential election, but one, between 1992 and 2020.

These states vote together. Say, for example, in 2016, when Republican Trump won the election, all the three Blue Wall states voted for him.

In case Harris loses the Blue Wall, she will depend on the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Together, these states have 49 electoral votes, a number that will help her easily sail through.The Sun Belt has traditionally voted for Republican candidates, though.

Even if Trump wins all the Sun Belt states, he will need some votes from the Blue Wall to cross the 270 majority mark.

An NYT report says that Harris needs 44 of these battleground electoral votes to win the election, assuming both candidates win all of the states where polls show them with significant leads. Trump needs 51.

Trump is very likely to win Georgia and North Carolina. Harris needs to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But Trump has advantage in all the three states, the report reads.