Investigating Musk’s far-fetched claim about Democrats importing voters

What has Musk said about illegal immigrants voting in this election?

Mr Musk has engaged with posts on X which suggest that illegal immigrants are already voting in this election.

On 30 October, he responded to a claim that illegal voters were able to apply for mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania.

Mr Musk replied to the claim, which has been rejected by local election officials, saying: “Is this real?”

It is against the law for non-citizens to vote in US federal elections – punishment includes a year in prison, a fine, and possibly deportation.

A number of studies, both from conservative and left-leaning organisations, suggest instances of non-citizens having voted in US federal elections are very small.

Since July, Mr Musk has posted at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad.

The language in many of these posts is ambiguous as to whether he means this will impact this election or future ones.

In seven posts, he has said they are going directly into swing states.

On 20 October, in a post viewed 21 million times, he said: “Triple digit increases of illegals in swing states over the past 4 years. Voter importation at an unprecedented scale!”

Mr Nawfal has been community noted (the process on X which crowdsources fact-checking from users) several times for making unverified claims.

He is one of the people Mr Musk has interacted with most on X over the last few months, according to Node XL.

It is unclear where the figure of 823,000 “inadmissible aliens” comes from.

The chart refers to @fentasyl – the anonymous X account of a “data expert” – but does not have a source.

It shows a large increase in migrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua and Haiti entering the US from 2023 onwards.

This appears to be a reference to the Humanitarian Parole Scheme launched in January 2023. This scheme allows vetted migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to live and work in the US legally – if they have a US sponsor.

Big numbers have arrived under this scheme – 531,000 people up until the end of September 2024.

But they are not allowed to vote and are not put on “a fast track to citizenship”.

They are permitted to stay in the US for a maximum of two years.

Some may be able to apply for protected status which would allow their temporary stay to be extended. But, even if they got this, they would not be able to vote in a federal election.

Those who do not qualify have to leave the country or face deportation proceedings.

“There is no direct path to a green card for people entering the US from Nicaragua, Venezuelan or Haiti on the Humanitarian Parole Scheme,” says Ms Mittelstadt.

“They could apply for asylum but these claims can take years, and if granted it doesn’t give you the right to vote,” she adds.

To become a US citizen – and get the right to vote in a federal election – you have to go through naturalisation.

To apply, someone has to have been a lawful permanent resident for five years; married to a US citizen and a lawful permanent resident for three years; or be a member of the military.

As of August 2024, 3.3 million immigrants had become naturalised citizens under the Biden administration.

Under Trump, the figure was around three million people.

It is also worth noting that new citizens are not guaranteed Democratic voters.

According to a recent survey, 54 percent of naturalised citizens said they would vote for Harris in November, while 38 percent said they would vote for Trump.

We have asked X for comment and to provide further evidence for Mr Musk’s claims.