Lakers vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Los Angeles Lakers have marched to the top of the Pacific Division and are giving a pile of points to the Luka-less Dallas Mavericks tonight. 

Los Angeles forward Dorian Finney-Smith, who played seven seasons with the Mavs, is set to play his fourth game in the purple and gold. My Lakers vs. Mavericks predictions like DFS to do what he does best and knock down shots from the outside.

Here are my best NBA picks for the Lakers at Mavericks on Tuesday, January 7.

Lakers vs Mavericks prediction

My best bet
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 1.5 Threes (+105 at bet365)

My analysis

During his long tenure with the Dallas Mavericks, Dorian Finney-Smith was primarily an outside shooting threat and is settling into that role for the Los Angeles Lakers since arriving in Hollywood as part of the D’Angelo Russell trade with Brooklyn last week.

“He plays the right way, defensively he’s a monster, rebounding, we can only imagine when he really gets comfortable with us and not hesitating shooting the basketball and makes the right reads where he’s just flowing,” Lakers center Anthony Davis told reporters about Finney-Smith’s growing role on the team.

It looks like Finney-Smith is finding that comfort zone on offense. He played 26 minutes in the loss at Houston on Sunday, scoring 13 points on 5 of 9 shooting. Six of those field-goal attempts came from beyond the arc, with Finney-Smith making two of those long-range looks.

His shooting touch and defense make Finney-Smith a valuable “Three-and-D” option for Los Angeles and head coach J.J. Reddick will want to take a long look at his new two-way weapon, with rumblings that he could work his way into the starting rotation ahead of Rui Hachimura.

Given the sizable spread and the fact that Dallas is playing without both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving tonight, the game script says L.A. should run away with this one and extend some added minutes to their reserves. 

Finney-Smith’s history in Dallas is icing on the cake, given he’ll be comfortable inside American Airlines Center. The last time he returned, the 6-foot-7 forward scored 12 points — all coming from beyond the arc on a 4-for-7 night from distance — as a member of the Brooklyn Nets last year.

He’s made at least two triples in his first three games for Los Angeles and Tuesday’s NBA player projections are all north of the 1.5 Over/Under on 3-pointers made with some models as high as 1.7 — not accounting for game script, a possible uptick in minutes, and the matchup with the Mavericks, who have watched their defense tank during the current five-game slide.

Lakers vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Dorian Finney-Smith 2+ threes

Dorian Finney-Smith 10+ points

Lakers Moneyline

Finney-Smith took six shots from deep in his last game and is starting to find his role and the “3-and-D” guys for Los Angeles.

Finney-Smith’s minutes and touches are increasing and he should be right at home against his former team tonight.

Dallas is down its big stars and it looks like LeBron, AD, and the rest of the Lake Show will be going all out to get back in the win column after a loss at Houston.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Mavericks odds

Lakers vs Mavericks live odds

Lakers vs Mavericks opening odds

• Spread: Los Angeles -4 (-110) | Dallas +4 (-110)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles -170 | Dallas +145
• Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Lakers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

• Los Angeles had its four-game run snapped by a loss in Houston on the weekend — just the second loss in the past nine games for LeBron & Co.
• The Lakers opened as 4-point favorites but with Doncic still out and Irving missing this matchup due to illness/back issues, the spread has since soared to as high as L.A. -7.5.
• The Over/Under opened at 225 points but with those offensive pieces missing for Dallas, the total plummeted to as low as 218.5 before buyback propped the number back to 219 points. 

Lakers vs Mavericks trend

The Lakers and Mavericks have played Under the total in seven of their last 10 head-to-head meetings in the regular season, going back to the 2021-22 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Mavericks.

How to watch Lakers vs Mavericks

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