Why Warriors must not make any panic moves over brutal collapses!?

A 10-2 start to the 2024-25 season was unexpected for the Golden State Warriors. Internally, this organization held high belief that they would be able to put the 2023-24 season behind them and flip the script to a new, fresh page. Lately, the Warriors have gone back to some of their old habits, leading to a 2-3 record over their last five games and headlined by a 128-120 loss at home to the Brooklyn Nets on Monday night.

After leading by 18 points in the third quarter, Golden State simply took their foot off the gas pedal against a depleted Nets roster. Ben Simmons and Nic Claxton were both sidelined with injuries, Cam Johnson left the game with a sprained ankle, and the Nets’ leading scorer in Cam Thomas ended up leaving the game in the third quarter due to a nagging back injury. This should’ve been an easy victory for the Dubs in front of the Chase Center faithful, yet that was not the case.

Still 12-5 on the season, there is no reason for the Warriors to begin panicking. Sure, they have lost two straight games to teams they should’ve defeated in the San Antonio Spurs and the Nets, but that is the nature of the NBA. With the amount of talent that exists across this league today, any team is susceptible to facing an upset on any given night, especially against teams full of role players like the Nets. Without a star player, Brooklyn spreads their offense out among the entirety of their roster, and they displayed their free-flowing offense with Dennis Schroder taking charge of things in the second half.

It is also worth pointing out that the Warriors are in the midst of an interesting part of their schedule.

The start of November saw Golden State face the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers — three of the best teams in the NBA. Wins on the road over the Celtics and Thunder gave the Warriors the assurances they needed, and the team then went on to pick up a massive emotional victory over the Dallas Mavericks in Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay Area. On top of all of these big games with playoff-like atmospheres, the Warriors were able to clinch West Group C in the NBA Cup group stage and advance to the quarterfinals.

There is an emotional element that plays into Golden State’s recent stretch of games that have not been their most impressive performances of the season, and there is also a fatigue element that is beginning to catch up to them. Monday night against Brooklyn marked the team’s second back-to-back of the season. It was also their third game in four days.

Over the course of the 82-game season, teams encounter tough parts of their schedule where there is not much time to plan ahead and get on top of their opponents when it comes to scouting. More importantly, there is not always a ton of time to rest and recover ahead of the next game.

This year’s Warriors squad has exceeded expectations when the lights are the brightest, which oftentimes leads to some disappointment against smaller market teams who aren’t put in the national spotlight because of their season projections.

Although wins are wins, it is tough to find satisfaction in a five-point win over the Memphis Grizzlies when they are without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and others. The same can be said about the Dubs’ recent 23-point win over the Atlanta Hawks, as they let Trae Young and Co. cut a 31-point lead to 13 points in the fourth quarter before pulling away.

Then there was a four-point victory over a New Orleans Pelicans team that was without Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, and starting center Yves Missi. While this was a NBA Cup game with more intensity being displayed, Golden State really had to fight for this road win against a team at the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

Still, the Warriors remain at the top of the standings ahead of what may be the most important section of their schedule this entire season. Matchups with the Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets, and Houston Rockets, as well as three games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, are ahead of the Warriors. A Christmas Day matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers highlights what appears to be the toughest month and stretch of Golden State’s schedule.

The past is the past, and the Warriors can’t go back and change the result from any of their recent games. But the lessons they learn from these games will be vital, especially considering many of their struggles that can be corrected stem from the second half.

Warriors’ recent second-half woes

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When the Warriors were at the peak of their dominance over the last decade, the third quarter of games was always where they left their mark. Steve Kerr’s group was always among the best second-half teams in the league, and that was the case for Golden State to begin the 2024-25 season.

Through their first 11 games of the season with a 9-2 record, the Warriors ranked first in second-half net rating at +15.8 overall, and their 131.1 offensive rating in the second half was also at the top of the league. In this same span, the Dubs’ third-quarter net rating was +24.6 overall, further proving that their ability to pull away from teams coming out of halftime was one of the keys to their success.

Over their last six games, where the Warriors have gone 3-3, they have posted a second-half net rating of -20.9 overall, which ranks rank 29th in the league during this span. Since that emotional win over Thompson and the Mavs on Nov. 12, the Warriors are among the three worst offensive teams in the second half of games, and their defense has not been much better. They have been outscored by 30 points in the second half during this span.

Even without looking at the advanced metrics, the eye test over these last six games tells the tale of the tape.

The Warriors were only able to pick up a five-point win against the Grizzlies after leading by five points. This group then lost by three points in a hard-fought game against the LA Clippers, followed by a 23-point win over the Hawks that the team almost fell apart in after seeing a 31-point lead cut to just 13 points. Each of the next three games against the Pelicans, Spurs, and Nets saw the Dubs surrender double-digit leads, two of which led to losses.

All of these second-half collapses and struggles are avoidable. Golden State doesn’t have a personnel problem, nor is it time for them to completely change the roster due to a couple bad losses and narrow victories. After losing to the Nets, Kerr kept it simple as to what ultimately happened to the Warriors.

“I feel like we lost juice again tonight. Big lead, late third, and can’t close the deal. Not a lot of energy. Not a lot of force. You know, you open up the door for a team in the modern NBA, and they might make 20 threes like Brooklyn did.

“We need to execute better, and that’s on me as the coach.”

It is hard to win a game when you give up 41 points in the final quarter of play. Defensively, the Warriors need to reverse course and get back to being who they were during the first month of the season. Or perhaps, contrary to popular fan belief, Jonathan Kuminga’s presence actually makes a difference defensively.

Impact of Jonathan Kuminga’s recent absence

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Kuminga has missed each of the Warriors’ last two games due to an illness. The good news is the young forward has been on the court and staying active.

This has been an up-and-down season thus far for the 22-year-old forward who has been thrust into the spotlight because of his contract situation with the team. Expectations are sky-high for Kuminga because of the decision Golden State made in the offseason to keep him instead of fully pursuing trades for Paul George or Lauri Markkanen.

The bottom line is Kuminga has played his part to this point in the season, averaging 13.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game while shooting 44.5 percent from the floor. Obviously, there is still plenty of room for growth as far as becoming a more efficient shooter and scorer goes, but a lot of the positives surrounding Kuminga, especially those the team loves about him, don’t always show up in the box score.

While he is not the best defender on the team, Kuminga’s length and athleticism alter opposing teams’ approaches on offense. Not to mention, his speed and ability to run in transition help the Warriors capitalize on a lot of their opponents’ turnovers.

Perhaps the greatest impact Kuminga’s absence has  is Kerr having to change the rotation. With De’Anthony Melton already done for the season due to his ACL injury, losing Kuminga leaves Golden State without two key players they rely on when it comes to perimeter defense.

Chemistry and continuity are two of the most important factors for any championship-contending team in the NBA, and when a wrench gets thrown into the fold, like Kuminga’s illness, everything becomes unbalanced. That is the predicament the Warriors currently face, as fatigue and lineup changes have made a negative impact on their chances to win.

Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry remain calm amid Warriors’ struggles

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A lot of hoopla has been made about the Warriors potentially making a significant change to their roster on the trade market, especially with Melton now being out for the season. His $12.8 million contract could easily be packaged with other assets, potentially a player like Kuminga or someone else, in order for Golden State to bring in another key contributor next to Stephen Curry.

While this is very much a possibility between Dec. 15 (when Melton becomes trade-eligible) and the trade deadline in February, there is no need to panic and feel forced to make a move given their recent struggles, whether Melton is involved or not. Golden State recognizes this, which is why the idea of making a trade for key talents rumored to be available isn’t something the Warriors are actively pursuing.

The Nets, who just defeated the Warriors, are a team many have linked to Golden State because of notable secondary talents like Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith. At this juncture, there hasn’t been any notable dialogue between the two sides in regards to a potential trade. Could these two organizations talk down the line about Johnson, Finney-Smith, or another player? That is absolutely a possibility, especially if the Warriors continue to scuffle. But right now the Dubs believe in their roster as is, something Kerr and Curry have stood by.

“I think we can be a little bit more intentional about what type of shots we might want to create with certain lineups,” Curry said after Monday’s loss. “We’re playing pretty solid for the most part. There is another level to get to, and that will decide what the fate of this team is.”

A bright spot for Steph and the Warriors during their recent hardships is Andrew Wiggins’ play on the wing. Wiggins not having his shots fall last season really limited this team’s overall potential, as he was a shell of the player he was during their championship run in 2022.

Despite the Warriors’ 3-3 record over their last six games, Wiggins has managed to average 21.7 points and 4.2 rebounds while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from three-point range over that span. As long as Wiggins continues to be a consistent scoring threat off the ball, Golden State will be able to steer their second-half offense in the right direction.

For Curry and the Warriors, having a few practice days between their games against the Thunder and Suns on Wednesday and Saturday, respectively, gives this group time to refocus their energy. There is still a lot of basketball yet to be played, and Curry is not about to have the Dubs’ recent collapses set the tone for the most important stretch of their season.

“Any practice window you have or any practice session, it usually builds that connection that you need, especially after a couple of losses because we all gotta be in this together. Nobody should run for the hills or press the panic button.”